Strait of Hormuz Trade Tracker

Strategic trade insights: Cross-commodity impacts in July and August

The analysis below is based on vessels visible through AIS. Shipments by vessels not transmitting AIS are not captured in the charts.

July and August data indicate that shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remained highly restricted and uneven across cargo categories. The temporary improvement seen around late June and early July did not develop into a sustained recovery. Seven-day moving averages for crude oil, LNG, and fertilizer-related outbound shipments remained close to zero for most of the two-month period, while agricultural inbound shipments showed more persistent, but still volatile, activity.

Crude oil outbound shipments to destinations outside the Persian Gulf recorded a brief pickup in late June and early July, with several shipments temporarily lifting the seven-day moving average. However, activity declined rapidly during July and returned to near-zero levels by mid-month. Only isolated shipments were visible around the end of July, early August, and again in mid-August. These sporadic movements were insufficient to generate a sustained increase in the moving average, which remained close to zero through most of August. This indicates that regular AIS-visible crude oil outbound activity through the Strait had still not resumed by the end of the month.

LNG outbound shipments experienced an even more limited recovery. A small number of shipments in late June and early July briefly lifted the seven-day moving average, but the increase was short-lived. No meaningful LNG shipment activity was observed from early August onward. As a result, the seven-day moving average remained near zero for the rest of the month, indicating that regular LNG outbound shipments through the Strait remained effectively suspended.

Fertilizer-related outbound shipments remained limited. Shipment activity picked up in late June and early July, briefly lifting the seven-day moving average before easing again. A brief pickup in late July quickly subsided, with the moving average returning to near-zero levels. In August, shipment activity was recorded on only one day, around mid-month, briefly lifting the seven-day moving average. This did not lead to any sustained recovery. Shipments were largely absent from late August, leaving the seven-day moving average close to zero. Overall, fertilizer-related outbound activity remained sporadic and subdued, well below the levels seen during the same period last year.

The agricultural indicator is measured by discharge date at destination ports and therefore incorporates a timing lag relative to vessel movements through the Strait. Direct comparisons with the outbound commodity indicators should therefore be interpreted with caution.

Agricultural inbound shipments into the Persian Gulf showed the most persistent activity of the four cargo segments. Activity strengthened during early and mid-July, with several sizeable arrivals temporarily lifting the seven-day moving average, before weakening sharply toward the end of the month. In August, agricultural inbound shipments showed renewed activity, with multiple shipments recorded throughout the month. Several relatively large individual shipments were visible, but the seven-day moving average remained well below both the 2025 baseline and the prior-year trend. On this basis, agricultural inbound shipments appeared more resilient than outbound crude oil, LNG, and fertilizer-related shipments, although the timing difference in the indicator means that direct comparisons should be treated with caution. The recovery also remained volatile and incomplete.

In summary, July and August data show that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely disrupted, with little evidence of normalization in outbound commodity shipments. Crude oil outbound activity was limited to isolated shipments, LNG outbound shipments were essentially absent after early August, and fertilizer-related outbound shipments remained subdued. Agricultural inbound shipments showed more persistent activity across July and August, although volumes remained volatile and substantially below historical levels. Overall, the data suggest that AIS-visible shipping activity across the monitored commodity flows had not returned to normal levels by the end of August. This conclusion comes with an important caveat: AIS-dark tanker transits increased over the same period, suggesting that the decline in visible crude movements may overstate the actual drop in tanker traffic. Some vessels appear to have continued moving oil through the Strait with their transponders switched off. In other words, the figures above reflect observable traffic rather than total physical transits.

Read more or contact AXSMarine (Signal Group) for further information on non-AIS movements.